This year's July seems to be a watershed. The balance of the coal industry's first half of the year seems to have been broken, and the “worse season” has caused coal producers to suffer. In the past, August was supposed to enter the second sales season after the "heating season." Coal on the market is "not to be sold." As of August 15, the stock of Qinhuangdao Port coal yard was 7.34 million tons, which was the highest level in the same period of the previous year, and the port coal price fell for three consecutive weeks. In the Datong area of ​​Shanxi Province, on August 16th, the 6,000-ka kcal coal pit had a tax-free price (including three gold) of 455 yuan/ton, compared with 470 yuan/ton last week.

The Qinhuangdao port coal price is the “wind indicator” of China's coal sales market, and Shanxi is the main producing area of ​​coal in China. The continuous decline in coal prices during the peak season has already indicated a problem. The warning of production capacity and excess production has been raised in the coal industry.

Wang Xianzheng, president of the China Coal Industry Association, repeatedly reminded coal producers at a forum: "The trend of coal oversupply in the second half of this year is evident, and the coal industry faces the danger of overcapacity. Coal companies must rely on resource conditions, regional environmental capacity, and security. Ability to reasonably determine capacity targets and development plans."

A data

In the first half of the year, supply and demand basically balanced coal prices rose slightly

In the first half of this year, the national coal market still seems to maintain an overall balance between supply and demand, and coal prices tend to fluctuate slightly. In the words of Wang Xianzheng: “In the first half of this year, the national coal economy was characterized by 'six increase, two highs, two drops, and one balance'.”

The "six increase" is: production, transportation volume, sales volume, import volume, inventory, total profit increase. According to statistics from the China Coal Industry Association, in the first half of this year, the country’s raw coal output was 1.571 billion tons, an increase of 263 million tons, an increase of 20.1%; coal sales were 1.545 billion tons, an increase of 300 million tons, an increase of 24%; national rail coal transportation Amount of 979 million tons, an increase of 146 million tons, an increase of 17.5%; major ports to complete the amount of coal shipped 270 million tons, an increase of 44.467 million tons, an increase of 19.7%; coal imports 81.09 million tons, an increase of 33.56 million tons, an increase 70.6%; cumulative net imports of 70.95 million tons, an increase of 34.89 million tons, an increase of 96.76%; the end of June, the national social coal inventory of 204 million tons, an increase of 32 million tons over the beginning, an increase of 18.6%; of which the national key power plant deposits 57.8 million Ton, an increase of 8.23 ​​million tons from the end of May, an increase of 16.6%, the number of days that can be consumed increased from the lowest 8 days of the beginning of the year to 18 days; the inventory of coal shipped from major coal ports was 19.23 million tons, an increase of 4.869 million tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 33.9%. In the first five months of this year, China's coal enterprises above the designated size achieved a total profit of 122.5 billion yuan, an increase of 54.794 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 80.91%; among them, the gross profit of large-scale coal enterprises was 66.4 billion yuan, an increase of 26.6 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 66.8%.

The "two highs" are: high coal prices fluctuate, and coal investment in fixed assets continues to grow at a high level. The average price of coal traded in the national market gradually dropped from 675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 660 yuan/ton in mid-March, and then steadily rebounded to 695 yuan/ton or so. From the perspective of changes in the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao Port, this year The price of 810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year dropped to 680~690 yuan/ton in April, and then gradually rose to 755 yuan/ton in June. It is currently stable at around 750 yuan/ton. In the first half of this year, the total investment in the coal mining and washing industry was 92.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%; it was 0.6% higher than the national average growth rate of urban fixed asset investment.

The “two downs” are: the cumulative export volume of coal nationwide has declined, and the death rate of coal mines has dropped by one million tons. In the first half of this year, the country’s total coal exports were 10.14 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.33 million tons or 13.1%. There were 654 accidents and 1,240 deaths in coal mines across the country, down 16.7% and 4.8% respectively; the coal mine’s death rate of one million tons was 0.788. The year-on-year decrease was 14.9%.

"A balance" means that the supply and demand of the coal market are generally balanced and relatively loose. In the first half of the year, the nation's coal market showed a trend of seasonal inconsistency, stable supply of electric coal, and loosening of the metallurgical coking coal market.

B analysis

Supply and demand "widely balanced" coal prices continued to decline this summer

In contrast with the tight supply during the “summer peak summer” in the coal industry in the past and the “coal shortage” is different, the national coal supply in the summer and autumn of 2010 has shown a “wide balance”.

The four major industries of electricity, steel, building materials, and chemical, which account for more than 70% of coal consumption, have become the key industries for the country's macroeconomic regulation and control and the elimination of backward production capacity. In particular, in May this year, the State Council issued the “Circular on Further Intensifying Work to Ensure the Implementation of the “Eleventh Five-Year” Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Targets”. The Chinese government will promote the further elimination of backward production capacity. All of the above four industries are high in energy consumption. The industry will be strongly regulated. According to industry analysts, this year's coal demand will drop by at least 100 million tons.

At the same time, a lot of rainfall this year, so that hydropower generation increased significantly, but also from another aspect of the thermal power consumption of coal. Li Chaolin, a senior coal industry expert, analyzed that “after the second quarter, there was abundant water in all basins and the hydropower generation increased significantly. This also weakened the growth of thermal power generation to a certain extent, and this trend is expected to continue in the third quarter.”

The above demand reduction impact on the coal market is obvious, said Li Jianwei, vice chairman of the Shanxi Provincial Electric Power Industry Association. “The coal inventories of the key power plants in Shanxi Province have been rising since the end of June and are maintained at more than 10 days. There is no shortage of coal.” Consistent with the situation in Shanxi, the amount of power coal stockpiled by power plants across the country is still at a high level in the near future. The average number of days available for power coal inventories for East China Power Grid, Central China Power Grid and China Southern Power Grid key power plants is 17 days, 31 days and 21 respectively. Day, the overall level is higher than the national average.