RMB rises and falls: CFETS exchange rate index hits new lows
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Market participants pointed out that in the future, the renminbi will appreciate slightly against the US dollar, while a basket of currencies may maintain a moderate depreciation. The deviation between the real exchange rate of the renminbi and the fundamentals will continue to be corrected.
According to the foreign exchange trading center, on May 3, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 6.4565 yuan. After the biggest increase in more than a decade on April 29, the median price rose by 24 basis points.
In the spot inquiry transaction on the 3rd, the RMB opened against the US dollar with the middle price, and kept a narrow range throughout the day. The closing price at 16:30 was 6.4743 yuan, up 112 basis points from the previous closing price. In the subsequent transaction, the RMB The gains have narrowed. As of 18:00, the RMB against the US dollar reported 6.4778 yuan, up 77 basis points.
In the Hong Kong market, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated back and forth yesterday. The overall price was not large. As of 18:00 Beijing time, the offshore RMB reported 6.4847 yuan, down 33 basis points.
Market participants pointed out that the recent US dollar has shown signs of decline, and non-US currencies have generally strengthened, stimulating the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar. Since April 25, the US dollar index has continued to fall. During the Asian trading hours on May 3, the US dollar index continued to fall, hitting a 15-month low of 91.91 points.
The Fed’s second interest rate hike has been postponed, and the monetary authorities of other major economies such as Europe and Japan have not further loosened monetary policy, resulting in a gradual convergence of the monetary policy “cycle difference†that supported the continued rise of the US dollar after July 2014. The main reason why the US dollar has fallen into a phased weakness. At present, the market's corrections for the Fed's policy expectations are still going on. After the US dollar breaks down, it further confirms the weakening pattern of the US dollar in the short to medium term. Non-US currencies are welcoming the "lift". Market participants believe that in the weak stage of the US dollar, in the short to medium term, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is more likely to fluctuate within the range and the bottom is higher.
It is worth noting that the phased rise of major non-US currencies such as the yen, the euro and the pound has caused the depreciation of the renminbi.
On May 3, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced that the CFETS RMB exchange rate index on April 29 was 97.12, down 0.10% from 97.22 on April 22, which was the fifth consecutive week of record lows, down 1.04 from the end of March. %, down 3.78% from the end of 2015.
Comparing the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, the data shows that the closing price of the RMB against the US dollar on April 29 was 6.4855 yuan, up 0.28% from the 6.4676 yuan at the end of March, and slightly depreciating 0.12% from the 6.4936 yuan at the end of 2015.
Market participants pointed out that the recent appreciation of the Japanese yen against the US dollar is more significant than the RMB against the US dollar, which has contributed to the continued decline in the RMB exchange rate index. The moderate devaluation of the renminbi in the “screening†of the weak dollar will help support the export sector and will not increase the pressure on capital outflows. For a period of time, the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and the depreciation of a basket of currencies may be the norm.