Aluminium prices fear falling again

Aluminum prices fear falling again Weekly Market Review:

This week, the domestic aluminum market remained relatively stable with minimal news impact. Most base metals showed no clear direction, while aluminum prices experienced a brief upward movement followed by a decline, maintaining a sideways trend overall.

The one-week performance of the spot price saw little change, with the domestic aluminum price slightly declining and the Shanghai to London price ratio dropping back to around 7.8.

Inventory levels for aluminum remained high, continuing to exert downward pressure on prices. The percentage of canceled warehouse receipts gradually decreased, and aluminum stocks continued to fall at a significant rate, indicating ongoing destocking.

**Price Analysis:**

Aluminum prices remain in a critical range, oscillating without a clear trend. The overall trend is still weak and uncertain, with repeated fluctuations. The key support level at 1750 was recently breached, leaving the next resistance at 1850.

The Shanghai aluminum contract continues to move within a downtrend channel, showing short-term consolidation. After five weeks of adjustment, support is now below 14,200, with strong support around 13,700. The immediate resistance remains at 14,500.

**Looking Ahead:**

This week, the market remained quiet, with no major news influencing the direction of base metals. However, the external market suffered a sharp drop over the weekend, signaling growing concerns about further declines after a period of consolidation. Efforts to address excess production capacity in electrolytic aluminum remain unclear, and it’s uncertain whether they will significantly improve the bleak outlook for the upstream industry.

The aluminum price at 1800 is still indecisive, with the Shanghai price remaining in a weak sideways trend. There are no signs that the downward movement has ended.

Starting from the middle of next week, a series of major economic data releases from key global economies will be released, alongside the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy statement, which are expected to increase market volatility. Unless there are major surprises in the data, aluminum prices are likely to face renewed downward pressure. This analysis is for informational purposes only.

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