The Paris-based International Energy Agency released its monthly oil market report on the 13th, reducing its global oil demand forecast this year to 89.3 million barrels, 200,000 barrels lower than previously expected, but still increasing by 1 million barrels per day compared to 2010 average daily demand. .

The International Energy Agency also reduced its global oil demand forecast for 2012 by 400,000 barrels to 90.7 million barrels, an increase of 1.4 million barrels per day from 2011 average daily demand. The agency pointed out that the slowdown in global economic growth will have a significant downside risk this year and next. The growth rate will be around 4%, and the global average daily oil demand may be reduced by 300,000 barrels and 1 million barrels, respectively, on the basis of the above forecast.

The International Energy Agency believes that in the first half of this year, the average supply of international crude oil was lower than the demand of more than 500,000 barrels per day. From July to August this year, the OECD industry inventory fell to 5 for the first time since June 2008. Below the average annual level. In order to make up for the short-term gap in crude oil supply caused by the continuous turbulence in Libya, the 28 member states of the International Energy Agency agreed to take joint action on June 23 this year and put an average of 2 million barrels of crude oil into the market every day for 30 days. The new Director-General of the International Energy Agency, Maria van der Huven, said last week that the measures to release the strategic oil reserve were “appropriate” and that no new measures will be introduced.

On the supply side, the International Energy Agency estimates that the average daily production of crude oil of non-OPEC member countries will fall to 52.8 million barrels in 2011 and 53.8 million barrels in 2012. In the next three quarters, OPEC crude oil production will remain at 30 to 30.5 million barrels per day. As the Libyan war is drawing to a close, the country’s crude oil production capacity will increase to 300,000 barrels in the fourth quarter this year, which is 100,000 barrels more than originally forecasted. However, the country’s return to normal oil production will be a long and difficult process.

The International Energy Agency pointed out that due to the reduced demand and increased supply, the tight supply of the international crude oil market in the near future will be eased in the short term. In the medium and long term, supply and demand will develop in a more balanced manner.