London January 21 news: Analysts said that due to China's new policy on aluminum exports, China's trade data released on Friday consolidated the expectation that China's aluminum exports will decrease in 2005. China's aluminum exports in 2004 An increase of 44%. The large increase in shipping volume in December shows that before the implementation of the new policy on January 1, exporters will export as much aluminum as possible. Tony Yu, an analyst at Standard Bank of London, said: "I think that China's aluminum exports may decrease this year. Basically, this is the main driver of aluminum prices." The Chinese government said in December that it will cancel from January 1, 2005. 8 % of aluminum exports tax rebates, while the export of aluminum exports increased 8% of the export tariffs. Yu said: "China's output will be affected. Large smelters can produce without export tax rebates and increase aluminum export tariffs, but some inefficient small smelters will face forced closure." 2004 China's aluminum production reached 6.5 million tons, of which the output of small smelters accounted for nearly 30%. Bargley Capital analyst Ingrid Sternby said that this year's aluminum exports from China will fall from 707,843 tons in 2004 to 100,000 tons. She said: "This will become the main factor in the aluminum price increase on the London Metal Exchange." She also said that there are other views in the market that China's aluminum exports are about 500,000 tons, but she said that this data is very Difficult to reach. Exports in December increased China’s net aluminum exports reached 171,000 tons in December, while exports in November and October were respectively 116,000 tons and 89,000 tons. The cumulative net exports from January to October 2004 were 126,825 tons. Bache Financial Mining strategist said: “The data for December are in line with expectations. We have already discovered that China’s aluminum metal was shipped to different warehouses in the Far East before anticipating the cancellation of export tax rebates and increasing aluminum export tariffs.†He said: “But I think that people have overestimated the impact of this factor on the market this year. I think that overall China’s net exports will decrease, but China is still the main net exporter in the West.†Analyst It said that the impact of China’s aluminum policy will not be known until the Chinese New Year holiday on February 9 because trade will reactivate after the Spring Festival. Analysts said it is difficult to predict whether there will be more Chinese aluminum exports to LME warehouses in the coming weeks. However, Yu suspects that some stocks are owned by private individuals. LME aluminum inventories have been stable at about 700,000 tons since last September, and began to decrease from 1.45 million tons in late January. Source: China International Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd.
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