Interim Jiahe: London Aluminum continues to adjust, failing to follow Lun Copper's gains

Yesterday, LME Aluminum did not follow the rise of Lunbron, but continued to maintain its adjustment trend, a slight decline of 5 US dollars, to close at 1855 US dollars. With 12,853 lots traded, trading volume was basically unchanged from Tuesday, and the cautious market sentiment remained unchanged. In terms of inventory, LME aluminum inventories increased by 700 tons yesterday, and the current total inventory is 509,175 tons. Although the aluminum market is still in the adjustment market, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for investors on the venue. But for companies and research institutions, they are still very much looking at the aluminum market. Venezuela plans to cooperate with Australian company Inalco to build an aluminum plant with an annual output of 70,000 tons, and gradually increase its production capacity after completion. The Russian aluminum company also said recently that, driven by the demand from China and India, the global aluminum market demand will continue to grow in the next five years. These market arguments all point out that, as a commodity of aluminum, its development space is quite large. As a futures product, the current LME aluminum is indeed in the adjustment market. This is mainly influenced by the species itself. Because aluminum is a futures product with strong financial attributes, the current trend of oil prices has a considerable degree of restriction on aluminum futures. The decline in crude oil is not good news for aluminum.

Judging from the domestic situation, due to the current liquidity restrictions in the Shanghai aluminum market, the off-site funds did not dare to enter the market rashly. In addition, the Shanghai aluminum futures price is largely constrained by the development level of the domestic spot market. Therefore, the price trend tends to be dominated by fluctuations among the communities. However, the domestic energy supply will not restrict the development of the entire industry. Macro-control will also provide policy support for the integration and development of the aluminum industry. China's capacity level can adapt to the pace of economic development. Therefore, the consumption of aluminum and steel in China will continue to grow. This is undoubtedly a favorable support for the period price. At present, the National Day is approaching. To avoid market risks, the best operation strategy is still to wait and see.

Today, Shanghai Aluminum's 0511 contract opened at 16,570 yuan, with a higher price of 16,580 yuan and a lower price of 16,540 yuan. It closed at 16,570 yuan at noon.

Operational; wait and see.

Zhao Wei

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