The photovoltaic industry in China has been facing a long period of hardship, often described as "a winter that never ends." However, according to recent reports and interviews, it may still be too early to claim that the sector is on the verge of a full recovery. Despite some signs of improvement, the road to revival remains uncertain.
One potential lifeline for struggling companies is the involvement of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), which have begun to inject capital into the industry. This trend, often referred to as a "blood transfusion," has become increasingly common. For example, Chaori Sun, a company in deep financial trouble, recently signed an agreement with Qinghai State Capital, which will acquire a 35% stake in the firm. As a result, the company will rebrand itself as a state-owned enterprise. Similarly, SOEs have taken control of other major players like LDK and Suntech Power, both of which were once leading names in the sector but are now facing severe challenges.
In terms of market dynamics, there have been some positive shifts. After nearly nine months of continuous price declines, photovoltaic product prices have started to rebound. Single-crystal silicon wafers and cell products have seen significant price increases, while module prices have stabilized since December 2012. According to Cinda Securities, this marks the first rise in component prices since the second half of 2011. Additionally, the National Energy Administration has raised its target for installed solar capacity under the "12th Five-Year Plan" from 21GW to 35GW. This increase indicates growing demand and provides a foundation for future price appreciation.
Despite these signals, the industry's performance remains weak. Chaori Sun reported a net loss of between 900 million and 1.1 billion yuan in 2012, representing a drop of 1,542.67% to 1,907.71% compared to the previous year. It became one of the worst-performing A-share listed companies in terms of earnings forecasts. Chaori Sun is just one example; most photovoltaic firms are still struggling, with only a few, such as Zhongli Science & Technology, Topsun New Energy, and Lida Optoelectronics, showing modest growth in net profit.
Industry experts point out that three major challenges must be addressed before the sector can truly recover. First, the over-reliance on overseas markets makes the industry vulnerable to trade barriers, such as anti-dumping investigations in Europe, the U.S., and India. Second, many local governments have shown excessive enthusiasm for developing new energy sectors, resulting in numerous PV industrial parks. In places like Haining, Zhejiang, traditional leather companies have shifted into photovoltaics, creating a surplus of low-quality producers. Finally, overcapacity remains a critical issue. While global demand is expected to grow, production capacity exceeds demand by a wide margin, making it difficult for companies to turn a profit.
Although some signs of stabilization are emerging, the photovoltaic industry still faces a long and challenging path to recovery.
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