Analysis of China's steel price trend in September
Qiu Yuecheng, Senior Research Fellow of China Federation of Iron and Steel Logistics Professional Committee: Late steel prices may rise first and then fall in late September.
As the first industry PMI data released separately from the 21 industry categories, steel PMI data will have a profound impact on market expectations and steel price trends. According to Qiu Yuecheng, a senior researcher at the China Federation of Iron and Steel Logistics Professional Committee, “In July, the steel PMI was released on August 1 and immediately boosted the market confidence in the downturn. The price of steel futures rose on the day, and the spot price was from August 2 The day began to pick up and rebound."
In addition, from the various sub-indices of steel PMI, the production index, new order index, and new export order index are all in the expansion range, reflecting that the production and sales activities of the company are relatively active; the purchase price index reaches 63.2%, reflecting The raw material price increased significantly, and the cost contributed to the steel price: the finished product inventory index was 33.6%, and the raw material inventory index was 44%, reflecting the positive results of the steel mill's destocking, while the low inventory of steel mill raw materials also made the raw materials exist. Strong replenishment needs.
It is worth mentioning that the expected index of production and operation activities reached 74.6%, which is the highest index among all the sub-indices. Among the sample companies surveyed, the proportion of business activities expected to be improved in the next three months is as high as 54%, and the proportion that is considered constant is 41%. The proportion of the difference is only 5%, reflecting the majority of steel enterprises The market is optimistic.
Qiu Yuecheng also talked about his own views on the trend of steel prices in the later period.
First of all, the policy level is the most important reason for this round of steel price increases. The rise in prices is mainly due to the successive introduction of steady growth policies and the strengthening of environmental protection policies, which have played a positive role in increasing market demand and restraining the excessive release of steel mill capacity.
At the same time, Qiu Yuecheng believes that although the end of June, domestic steel prices have risen by an average of 300 yuan / ton. However, steel prices are still at a low level as a whole. Among them, the rebar price is close to the level at the beginning of September 2012, still at a low point of more than 4 years; the hot-rolled, medium-thick plate is 300~400 yuan/ton higher than the price level at the beginning of September 2012, and the overall price level is not high. .
Secondly, it is unlikely that capacity release will be suppressed too much in the second half of the year. The strengthening of environmental protection policies will inevitably lead to a positive impact on the steel market, but the expectations should not be too large. Because the elimination of backward production capacity not only involves local government taxation, employment and other issues, it will also cause losses to banks. "At present, the debt ratio of steel mills reaches 70%, and the debt of domestic key large and medium-sized enterprises exceeds 3 trillion yuan. If it is shut down, the losses are all bank money."
Finally, in the near future, the government has introduced a number of policies to stimulate investment. The transformation of shantytowns, the construction of underground pipeline networks, and the construction of urban infrastructure can indeed form a certain pulling effect on investment. However, we should also see that many places in the development zones that have been desperately built in recent years have become unfinished buildings. The logistics parks including the steel industry have become saturated. The vacancy rate of commercial housing in many second- and third-tier cities has exceeded the police line. There is really not much room for growth in investment.
Overall, Qiu Yuecheng is cautious about the trend of steel prices in the later period. He believes that the price of steel in the later period is likely to be the trend of rising first and then falling. Domestic steel prices will face greater downward pressure in the middle and late September. The spot price of rebar in Shanghai market will return to RMB 3,800/ton and futures price will be 3,900. The possibility of yuan/ton or more is not great.
Principal Analyst: There are still many operating opportunities in the bear market. Steel prices continue to be strong in the short term.
At present, although the steel industry as a whole is in the “big bear marketâ€, the chief analyst of the chief analyst of Nishimoto Shinkansen believes that steel prices will continue to rise in stages due to factors such as continued decline in social inventories, rising raw material prices and policy expectations. .
First of all, from the perspective of supply and demand, with the improvement of the profitability of steel mills and the overhaul of some large steel mills, the operating rate of steel mills will rise, and the supply pressure in the later market will gradually emerge. However, from the current social inventory, it is still at a low level. Taking rebar as an example, according to statistics from the Nishimoto Shinkansen, as of August 9, the domestic rebar stock of social rebar was 6,713,300 tons, and in mid-March, the figure was 1,100.95 million tons. “The decline and speed of rebar stocks have been rare in the past five years.â€
At the same time, the chief analyst believes that in the case of steel mill export orders are still good, the reduction in inventory supply will be converted into orders for steel mills, thus supporting the steel mill operating rate to maintain a high level, therefore, the short-term market supply pressure is still not Big. In addition, with the easing of hot weather, the terminal demand may be slightly improved.
Secondly, from the perspective of cost, the rapid recovery of billets and imported ore has played a strong supporting role in steel prices. Taking imported iron ore as an example, as of August 9, 63.5% of the external price of printing powder is 134.75 US dollars / ton, up 3.25 US dollars / ton from the previous week; Platts 62% grade iron ore index is 133.5 US dollars / ton , up $3.75/ton from the previous week.
For the price of imported iron ore, the chief analyst believes that in the long run, the price of imported iron ore will appear at a low price of 70-80 US dollars/ton in the past two or three years, but it does not rule out the chance of a staged rebound. It is possible to rise to 140~150 USD/ton. “Considering the rising rate of steel mills, the demand for raw materials and strong prices will continue in the later period.â€
Finally, from the perspective of macroeconomic policies, the continuous strength of the stock market and futures market, as well as the continuous introduction of various national regulatory policies, have formed strong support for steel price trends. However, the chief analyst also believes that due to the recent upward trend in financial disputes between banks, steel mills and steel trade, the steel price trend will still have a restraining effect.
For the trend of steel prices in the later period, the chief analyst believes that domestic steel prices are expected to continue to be strong in the short term. From the rising time, this round of rising prices will continue for two months or so. "The eleventh holiday will be a very strong Sensitive time node." But she also said that a trending inflection point is likely to appear at any time.
Zhang Dongyong, general manager of Shanghai Gaiqun Trading Co., Ltd.: cautiously optimistic about the price of steel
"When we do trade, we pay attention to the price of the society, because it increases and decreases, and it affects part of the future price operation." Zhang Dongyong said that steel stocks have experienced a rare 21-week continuous decline under pessimistic expectations.
For the later trend of steel prices, Zhang Dongyong is cautiously optimistic. He believes that the conditions of late optimism mainly come from real estate with high temperature, high-speed non-stop high-speed rail construction and renovation and expansion under new urbanization. For real estate, Zhang Dongyong believes that the recent management's proposal to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market seems to imply the turn of real estate regulation.
On July 30, the statistics released by the Ministry of Land and Resources in the first half of this year showed that the supply of real estate land in China in the first six months of this year reached 82,400 hectares, the highest in the same period in recent years, especially the proportion of housing land used for housing. .
In addition, the expansion and expansion under urbanization will also bring opportunities to the steel industry. At present, China's urbanization rate has just exceeded 50%. Among them, the urbanization of most prefecture-level cities in China is still in the range of 10%~30%, far lower than the average level of nearly 80% in developed countries. Therefore, China's urbanization may accelerate its development in the future. Zhang Dongyong believes that in the future, China's urbanization construction and railway investment growth will accelerate, which has a great driving effect on promoting steel consumption.
However, Zhang Dongyong is still cautious about the recent steel market. He said that since the end of June, billet, rebar, hot coil, cold rolled, plate and steel futures have all experienced different degrees of increase, so it is necessary to be cautious in the risk of market correction. .
Xu Xiaoyang, an analyst of coal coke in Oriental Huijin Futures Research Institute: demand is expected to improve rebar stocks rebound
Xu Xiaoyang made a detailed analysis of the current rebar futures market from the macro environment, fundamentals and technology, and proposed related strategies. She believes that rebar is bottoming out, at least to a height of 3,850.
From the macro-environmental analysis, Xu Xiaoyang believes that Lido is improving short-term supply and demand expectations in the near future. The relevant departments have not mentioned further regulation of real estate, which creates conditions for real estate investment in the second half of the refinancing of housing enterprises; recent urbanization, shantytown transformation and other related information. To make the market optimistic about demand; railways and environmental protection investment are accelerated, which is conducive to stimulating demand; in addition, the increase in environmental protection policies will also reduce the supply of steel.
However, Xu Xiaoyang also reminded that property tax, the Fed’s withdrawal from loose monetary policy and local debt problems will also affect market sentiment.
For the fundamentals of the industry, Xu Xiaoyang said that problems such as high output and high production capacity are still plaguing the industry. In the first half of the year, China's crude steel output remained high. At the same time, China's new production capacity is still on the rise.
Statistics released by the China Iron and Steel Association show that in the first half of this year, large and medium-sized steel enterprises realized a total profit of 2.267 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase. However, the industry's profits have been declining month by month, with the first monthly loss in June this year, with a loss of 699 million yuan.
Since the second half of 2011, the domestic steel industry has been hovering near the profit and loss line. If the income from mines and investments is deducted, the main steel production industry has lost seven quarters. In the first half of the year, the average profit margin of the steel industry was only 0.13%, which was at the lowest level in the industry. In the first half of this year, the profit per ton of steel was only 0.43 yuan.
According to this, Xu Xiaoyang calculated that the profit level of tons of steel is currently bottoming out. "According to the golden section and tangent analysis, the rebound height is at least 3,850." Xu Xiaoyang said.