Chinese urea drags on the eastern hemisphere
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The international urea market saw a generally stable trend last week, with prices in the Western Hemisphere remaining steady. However, the Eastern Hemisphere faced downward pressure due to a decline in China's urea prices. Small-particle urea FOB prices in China dropped from 340 USD to 330–335 USD, with no actual transactions reported. This weakness is expected to worsen as India prepares to announce new tenders.
Meanwhile, demand in Southeast Asia remains sluggish, and Indonesia’s small granule urea prices are currently 25 USD higher than large granules. This week, competition in the Indonesian market has intensified, with aggressive bidding observed for small granule urea.
At Yuzhny Port, the current price has yet to be tested, and traders looking to export to Latin America are now accepting short-term delivery terms. After June, supply will become more flexible. Baltic suppliers have already sold their production for the first half of June at an FOB price of 340 USD. Now, the FOB price must fall below 330 USD, and traders who recently purchased urea can sell it at the current level.
During this month’s annual meeting of the International Fertilizer Industry Association in Chicago, one of the main topics was the potential for urea prices to hit new lows. Market signals are already showing signs of weakness. Some producers are still hoping for strong U.S. demand, but the U.S. fertilizer season has largely concluded.
It is expected that international urea prices will remain under pressure in the short term until China’s inventory starts to decrease and new production begins to move again. With supply chains adjusting and global demand uncertain, the market is likely to face further volatility in the coming weeks.
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