Chinese urea drags on the eastern hemisphere

Chinese urea drags on the eastern hemisphere The international urea market remained largely stable last week, with prices in the Western Hemisphere holding steady through June. However, the Eastern Hemisphere faced downward pressure as Chinese urea prices declined. Small-particle urea FOB prices in China fell from $340 to $330 in the previous week, and even dropped further to $335 without any actual transactions being made. With India still awaiting new tender announcements, there are concerns about a potential further price drop. Meanwhile, demand in Southeast Asia remains sluggish, and Indonesia’s small granule urea is currently priced $25 higher than large granules. This week, competition for small granule urea sales has been intense, indicating strong local demand despite broader market weakness. At Yuzhny Port, the current price hasn’t been tested yet. Exporters aiming to reach the Latin American market must now accept short-term delivery terms, with more flexible delivery schedules expected after June. Baltic suppliers had already sold out their first-half production at $340 FOB, but the FOB price now needs to fall below $330. Recent purchases by traders can be resold, but the window for profit is narrowing. During this month’s annual meeting of the International Fertilizer Industry Association in Chicago, one of the key topics was the possibility of urea prices hitting new lows this year. Market signals are already showing signs of weakness. Some producers are still hoping for support from the U.S. market, although the U.S. fertilizer season has already ended. It is expected that international urea prices will remain under pressure in the short term until Chinese inventories begin to decline and fresh production is sold again.

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