The State Council's eight arguments for steady growth and micro-stimulus

Abstract The official manufacturing PMI announced in May earlier was warmer than expected, and the economic upward momentum has recovered. It is not difficult to find out that the State Council executive meeting since April has shown that the “micro-stimulus” policy has increased signs and is increasingly emphasized. Targeted. ...
The official manufacturing PMI announced in May earlier was warmer than expected, and the upward momentum of the economy has recovered. It is not difficult to find out that the State Council executive meeting since April has shown that the “micro-stimulus” policy has increased signs and more emphasis is placed on it. .

Recently, at the press conference held by the State New Office, Chen Dongqi, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the government’s various “micro-stimulus” measures this year have ensured that China’s fiscal and monetary policies are operating actively and steadily. Economic development needs and has an effect. The market interprets this as the first official recognition of the existence of “micro-stimulus” and is reasonable.

A report by Gao Hua Securities, a reporter from the Daily Economic News (microblogging), judged that the unfavorable factors earlier this year, including the impact of sluggish consumption and weak external demand, and the lag in tightening financial policies at the end of last year. The effects have all subsided, and the government's direct policy support has been relatively modest and targeted.

8 executive meetings have been growing steadily

Since April, Premier Li Keqiang has hosted the meeting on April 2, April 16, April 23, April 30, May 14, May 21, May 30 and June 4. Eight times the State Council executive meeting. It can be clearly seen from the content of the meeting that steady growth is one of the key words emphasized by the meeting.

The State Council executive meeting in early April started the "starting gun" of this series of steady growth.

"Standing steady growth and keeping the economy running in a 'reasonable interval' is the premise of our work." Li Keqiang made it clear at the meeting.

The meeting decided to expand the scope of implementation of the preferential policies for small and micro enterprise income tax, further promote the support of development finance for the transformation of shantytowns, and determine the policy measures to deepen the reform of railway investment and financing system and accelerate railway construction.

At the executive meeting on April 16, Li Keqiang once again stressed that the current government should take "stable growth" as an important task. The meeting determined the measures for the development of financial services for agriculture, rural areas and farmers, and decided to continue and improve the tax policy to support and promote employment.

Many official think tank economists have expressed their views on the employment and steady growth of the "Daily Economic News" reporters. They generally believe that the Prime Minister's concern for GDP growth is more considering employment stability. According to the current Chinese economic structure, The 7.4% growth rate is enough to complete the Chinese employment target this year.

The focus of steady growth measures since April is very clear. On April 23, Li Keqiang pointed out that it is necessary to play a key role in investment, promote structural adjustment with structural reforms, and maintain stable economic growth. The meeting confirmed the policy measures to further implement the investment autonomy of enterprises, and decided to launch a number of projects to encourage social capital participation in areas such as infrastructure.

The following several executive meetings focused on stable exports, accelerated the development of productive service industries and accelerated the construction of major water conservancy projects for water-saving and water supply. The meeting emphasized the important role of the above measures in “promoting stable economic growth”.

"Micro-stimulus" balances growth and reform

After the opening of China’s new round of comprehensive deepening reforms at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, this year’s Chinese economic melody will be set in reform, and at the same time, economic growth will inevitably face pain.

Liu Shijin, deputy director of the National Research Center, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that from the big background, the Chinese economy is still in a transition period from high-speed growth to medium-speed growth, but where is the bottom of the medium-high speed? The process of bottoming out.

In this context, how to find the right point? The economists' proposal is to combine short-term steady growth with long-term reform. "It is especially important to give special attention to the effects of reforms and to prioritize reforms that are conducive to stabilizing growth, restructuring, and promoting transformation," said Liu Shijin.

This can be confirmed in the series of measures to stabilize growth. The Standing Meeting on May 14 pointed out that it is necessary to rely more on market mechanisms and innovation-driven, and focus on developing production services such as R&D, business services, marketing, and after-sales services to promote the overall quality and competitiveness of the national economy.

An official from the National Development and Reform Commission told the Daily Economic News reporter that after the potential growth rate is lowered, the macroeconomic regulation and control of the Chinese economy needs to be changed. It is directly reflected in the supply and demand sides, and the supply is focused on adjustment. The main body creates conditions, such as promoting new urbanization construction and adjusting regional structure, and launching the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei plan.

"On the demand side, we must avoid only stimulating for a while. For example, if we increase investment in the central and western railways, we can lay a long-term basis for the balance of the eastern, central and western regions of China. Although the consumer side does not adopt subsidies and other stimulus policies, it will increase the protection of people's livelihood. Promoting the transformation of shanty towns and improving the medical insurance for major illnesses will create good consumer expectations for the people," the official said.

The economy has stabilized and rebounded

After the launch of the steady growth policy, it was in a stalemate with the downward pressure on the economy. However, from the data disclosed in May, the signs of economic improvement have begun to appear.

In May, not only did the manufacturing PMI index hit a new high in the year, but the non-manufacturing business activity index also rose to 55.5%, confirming the increasingly active production and operation of enterprises. According to the "China Yiwu Small Commodity Index" information system monitoring, the prosperity index in May continued to rise, reaching 1132.98 points, up 28.9 points month on month and up 28.16 points year on year. It shows that there are signs of recovery in both foreign and domestic demand.

The steady growth step is still going on, and it is vocal about the current difficulties in corporate financing. The State Council executive meeting held on May 30 proposed to deepen financial reforms, use the method of adjusting the structure, timely and moderately fine-tuning and fine-tuning the blood of the financial service entity economy.

Analysts pointed out that the “micro-stimulus” in the past two months has strong coherence, first clear the key support areas, and now it is focused on solving the financial support for the real economy, thus truly stimulating economic vitality.

Financial funds have also begun to transfuse the real economy by adjusting the pace of expenditure and gradual reforms. The Ministry of Finance recently issued a notice urging government departments to use fiscal transfers more effectively and accelerate budgetary fiscal expenditures to ensure that the full-year economic and social development goals are met.

CICC reported that the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and the promotion of aggregate demand will help stabilize the economic growth in the second half of the year. Similar to the measures to revitalize the fiscal stocks that were introduced last year for steady growth, it will help speed up the progress of fiscal expenditures.

Does the steady growth still have a late move? Many analysts believe that this is more likely because of the current difficulties faced by small and micro enterprises.

Sun Hailin, an analyst at Hongyuan Securities, believes that the economic situation in the second quarter may be similar to that in the first quarter, but there are more downward pressures in the third quarter due to the high base in the same period last year. Because the policy transmission has a time-delay effect, the decision-making level will not passively wait for the economic data to confirm the economic stall and then rush to launch the policy, but to play the policy advance amount, carry out the expected management and timely support.

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