Potassium price increase: rebound or flash in the pan

Potassium price increase: rebound or flash in the pan

Last week, the market price of domestic potash fertilizers continued to maintain a steady upward trend in the wake of the overall favorable sales of downstream compound fertilizer companies, centralized procurement of raw materials, tight supply of imported potash, and tightening of domestic potash orders. Whether this round of the market is the bottoming out of the market or short-lived, the market has been mixed.

Domestic In the first half of the year, the overall domestic fertilizer market was relatively weak. It was difficult for dealers to grasp the trend in the latter part of the year. The operation was mainly based on sales and sales, and the general distribution rate of distribution channels was not high. After entering the third quarter, the export orders of ammonium phosphate enterprises were better and the prices rose accordingly. Driven by this, the advance payment of the downstream compound fertilizer companies has improved, and the demand for raw materials has increased. At the same time, after entering August, the overall shipment volume of imported potash decreased from the previous period, and port traders continued to release signals of tight supply, which stimulated downstream purchase orders. On August 11, the arrival price of salt lake was increased by 50 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the new price was quickly accepted by the market. Under the influence of buying up or not buying, the order was not reduced after the price adjustment. At present, 60% of crystalline potassium chloride in salt lakes in Jiangsu is priced at 1,980 yuan (cash spot). Salt Lake intends to increase prices again before the end of the month. However, official documents have not yet been announced. It is expected that the quotation of other companies in the Qinghai region will also change. At present, the railway transportation is smooth, domestic potash fertilizer is mainly shipped, and the situation is better when the salt lake is reduced to the station price in the previous round. At present, orders are tightened slightly. Powder potassium chloride is tightly distributed, cold crystalline potassium chloride. Relatively slightly better.

Ports Currently, traders generally do not sell much goods and they are reluctant to sell. 62% white potassium, Russian white potassium are not quoted, the market is difficult to find sources, the industry has no clear statement of the trend of the market outlook. Part of the industry's view is that this round of market conditions is difficult to sustain. Under the influence of the supply and demand relationship, the market price will tend to be a small consolidation. And before a new round of negotiations on potash fertilizer contracts, the sharp increase in domestic prices would be detrimental to China’s bargaining power. Another part of people believe that the international warming of potash fertilizer prices is an indisputable fact. From September to October, international suppliers have steadily increased their quotation for arrivals in various markets. The Chinese market as a "price depression", foreign investors will be clear about price increases.

In the recent negotiations between the Chinese buyer and the Israeli ICL in the second half of the year, it is clear that potassium will ensure that the price will increase by 10% in the second half of the year. The current negotiations are still in stalemate and the market is waiting for new prices to be introduced. In addition, as a major supplier, potash pot can be added to the parking maintenance period in August, and supply sources can continue to decrease.

Sinochem is currently negotiating with Potashex Potashex to discuss the specific shipment status of the 500,000-ton option in the first-half contract. Russian Potassium also has uncompleted shipping orders. The port will continue to ship in the latter part of the year, but the downstream demand has been strong recently. Although Yingkou Port and Lianyungang have arrived on board, the goods have been pre-sold. It is expected that this round of procurement boom will continue at the end of the month. At present, large-scale downstream fertilizer companies have more domestically-manufactured potash fertilizers and have more inventory, and most of them can maintain for 2 to 3 months. This round of procurement is mostly for SMEs, the early market downturn, raw material stocks are less, recently pulled by the advance receipts in autumn, there is a centralized procurement boom.

At present, 62% of white crystals sold in port have been sold out, and the prices of other varieties have not been supplied. Russian red powder mainstream quotes from 1980 to 2000 yuan, Russian white potassium offer 2060 to 2080 yuan. Jordan white potassium and Israeli white potassium offer 2020 ~ 2050 yuan, large particles offer 2320 ~ 2340 yuan.

Border trade In the first half of the year, the Chinese market price was relatively low. Ukrainian Uralkali will mainly sell its goods to the better-priced markets in Brazil and Europe and the United States, and give limited goods to the Chinese market. After entering the second half of the year, the volume of border trade shipments was also low. In August, the overall shipment volume was still small. At present, the volume of border traders and traders is not high. The price of Russian Red Potash at the port is 1,850 yuan, and 62% of Bai Jing is quoted at 1,850-1,880 yuan.

International international prices of potassium chloride held steady last week. The standard potassium chloride FOB price is 270-315 dollars for Vancouver, 290-325 dollars for Northwest Europe, 230-320 dollars for the Commonwealth of Independent States, 280-310 dollars for Jordan, 280-315 dollars for Israel, and 310-350 dollars for Southeast Asia. The KAP price of granular potassium chloride: Brazil 350-370 US dollars, Europe 285-300 US dollars, steady.

In general, domestic market of potassium chloride will remain stable in the short term due to the pull of ammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer. Demand that was depressed by the downturn in the market was released in a concentrated manner and transactions were more optimistic. In the first half of the year, the domestic price of potash fertilizer has dropped to a relatively low level, and the appropriate increase has a certain positive effect on all parties.

However, the market is still full of variables in the second half of the year. On the one hand, there was no conclusive negotiation on the new round of potash fertilizer contract negotiations, and the price increase was too fast or was not conducive to China’s bargaining. On the other hand, the arrival of border trade in the fourth quarter is still not conclusive. This round of price increase is mainly due to the tight supply of ports. Sinochem and the shipping rhythm of the shipping contracts that have not yet been completed by the middle peasants in the later stages will affect the market's later trend to a large extent.

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